000			01823nab a2200217 4500
005			20260520001115.0
008			260224s2014 xxu ing
041			_aInglés
245	0	0	_aA Method for the Analysis of Behavioural Uncertainty in Evacuation Modelling
260			_a _b _cnov. 2014
270			_a06/12/2016 ; 27/07/2016
300			_a26 p. ; 1545-1571
520			_aTranscripción del resúmen realizada por el autor: Evacuation models generally include the use of distributions or probabilistic variables to simulate the variability of possible human behaviours. A single model setup of the same evacuation scenario may therefore produce a distribution of different occupant-evacuation time curves in the case of the use of a random sampling method. This creates an additional component of uncertainty caused by the impact of the number of simulated runs of the same scenario on evacuation model predictions, here named behavioural uncertainty. To date there is no universally accepted quantitative method to evaluate behavioural uncertainty and the selection of the number of runs is left to a qualitative judgement of the model user. A simple quantitative method using convergence criteria based on functional analysis is presented to address this issue. The method permits (1) the analysis of the variability of model predictions in relation to the number of runs of the same evacuation scenario, i.e. the study of behavioural uncertainty and (2) the identification of the optimal number of runs of the same scenario in relation to pre-defined acceptance criteria.
581			_a6
773	0		_tFire Technology _g50
942			_cARTICULO
100	1		_aRonchi, Enrico _955471
100	1		_aReneke, Paul A. _932726
100	1		_aPeacock, Richard D. _932724
999			_c189689 _d189689