000			01964nab a2200205 4500
005			20260520000805.0
008			260224s2009 xxu
245	0	0	_aImplications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming
260			_a _b _cene. 2009
270			_a02/03/2009 ; 27/02/2009
300			_a14 p. ; 166-180
520			_aTranscripción del resúmen publicado por el autor: Energy Security and Global Warming are analysed as 21st century sustainability threats. Best estimates of future energy availability are derived as an Energy Reference Case (ERC). An explicit economic growth model is used to interpret the impact of the ERC on economic growth. The model predicts a divergence from 20th century equilibrium conditions in economic growth and socio-economic welfare is only stabilised under optimistic assumptions that demands a paradigm shift in contemporary economic thought and focused attention from policy makers. Fossil fuel depletion also constrains the maximum extent of Global Warming. Carbon emissions from the ERC comply nominally with the B1 scenario, which is the lowest emissions case considered by the IPCC. The IPCC predicts a temperature response within acceptance limits of the Global Warming debate for the B1 scenario. The carbon feedback cycle, used in the IPCC models, is shown as invalid for low-emissions scenarios and an alternative carbon cycle reduces the temperature response for the ERC considerably compared to the IPCC predictions. Our analysis proposes that the extent of Global Warming may be acceptable and preferable compared to the socio-economic consequences of not exploiting fossil fuel reserves to their full technical potential.
581			_a1
773	0		_tEnergy Policy _g37
942			_cARTICULO
100	1		_aNel, Willem P. _940444
100	1		_aCooper, Christopher J. _940445
650		0	_aCalentamiento global del planeta _91143
999			_c169161 _d169161