01856nab a2200193 4500 20260520001818.0 260224s2010 xxu Probabilistic wellbore collapse analysis nov. 2010 07/02/2011 ; 07/02/2011 7 p. ; 171-177 Transcripción del resumen del autor. In studying wellbore instability, it is generally assumed that inputs are certain and average values are used. In practice, however, there are uncertainties that exist in each one of the input variables. To overcome this deficiency a probabilistic wellbore stability model is developed for vertical wells and optimum borehole trajectory determination. The adopted probabilistic approach captures uncertainty in input variables through running a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the value of drilling fluid pressure as a probability distribution. As a result, the impact of the in situ stresses and rock strength parameters on wellbore stability analysis is captured. It has been found that the maximum horizontal stress, cohesion and friction angle of the rock formation are the most critical factors in wellbore stability analysis under all in situ stress regimes. In addition, the optimum well path is studied and again the maximum horizontal stress followed by minimum horizontal stress impacted well path the most. The suggested probabilistic approach has the ability to systematically quantify the impact of uncertainty which aids more insight in wellbore stability decisions. This approach can be used as a supplement to the current available tools in designing drilling operations. 3-4 Journal of Petroleum Science & Engineering 74 ARTICULO Al-Ajmi, A.M. 44471 Al-Harthy, M.H. 44472 173192 173192 0 0 0 0 241011 BAAB BAAB 2026-03-05 200051182 0 200051182 2026-03-05 16:09:08 2026-03-05 ARTICULO