TY - SER AU - Ellis,Phillip TI - Back to the old paradigm: Oil prices KW - Precios de petróleo N2 - In an article in "The Economist", in September of 2002, I was quoted as saying that oil prices were likely to climb above $50/b if war broke out in Iraq. This was not speculation, but reflected 20 years' history of oilprice behaviour, writes Phillip Ellis, head of global oil, Boston Consulting Group, London ER -