02163nmc a2200205 4500 20260520005610.0 260224s2001 xxu ing Inglés Probabilistic Model To Develop Multilayer Gas and Oil Prospects SPE 69614 Dallas, Texas Society of Petroleum Engineers 2001 12/09/06 ; 17/07/01 It is not that uncommon when putting together an exploratory program to find that there are several prospects within a block, and/or several reservoirs within an individual prospect. Given that we could successfully develop each prospect, the total value of the property will be equal to the sum of the individual prospects, i.e. we can add the Net Present Value (NPV) distributions taking into account the probability of success of each prospect to obtain an estimation of the block’s value. This simple process will be complicated when one or more of the prospects have more than one potential layer. We can solve this problem by introducing simplifications, such as adding all the layers and developing them as one unit. But what if they are at different depths, have different productivity index, gravity or impurities? We can also build a decision tree that takes into consideration the different future scenarios. This is usually tedious, time consuming and we could introduce additional bias when having to assign probabilities to the different branches. This paper shows a simple methodology to build a probabilistic production forecast, capital and operation expenditures for a prospect with several layers, in order to make an economic evaluation of an exploration opportunity. CONGTP Faya, Luis C. 6527 Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference (7th : 2001 mar. 25-28 : Buenos Aires, Argentina) 5738 Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference (7th : 2001 mar. 25-28 : Buenos Aires, Argentina) 5738 Faya, Luis C. 6527 131178 131178 https://biblioteca.iapg.org.ar/ArchivosAdjuntos/LACPEC2001/Spe69614.pdf 0 0 0 0 202100 BVIAPG BVIAPG 2026-03-03 200003256 0 200003256 2026-03-03 01:41:18 2026-03-03 ARCHIVO