Exploration and development of unconventional resources has dominated Argentinian hydrocarbon activity in the last decade, being the Neuquén Basin and in particular the Vaca Muerta Formation its main objective. However, criteria for volumetric calculations and risk assessments, and the comparison of different projects within this play is complex due to a methodological void. Generally, it can be considered that all the wells that have correctly tested the Vaca Muerta Formation, have produced hydrocarbons, giving a Probability of Geologic Success (Pg) close to 100%, at the basin center. This transforms the geologic risk into a hardly useful variable when defining and comparing unconventional projects. As an alternative we propose the definition of uniform zones regarding reservoir behavior and fluid properties, equivalent to conventional prospects, and to consider as an evaluation parameter the Probability of Economic Success (Pe). Calculation of this Pe will depend on technical variables: productivity, fluid type, fraccability, etc.; as well as economic parameters such as Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) and Operational Expenditures (OPEX), in addition to contractual and fiscal terms. This will allow obtaining a Net Present Value (NPV) for those cases that are economic, and based on this and the Pe, define an Expected Value which will allow selecting the best alternative among comparable projects. Additionally, this methodology can be implemented to assess the number of wells needed in each stage of a phased exploration and development approach, considering the risk that a particular company wants to take.