Prospect risk, pot odds, and efficient drill or no-drill decision making (Record no. 189572)
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| 000 -LEADER | |
|---|---|
| fixed length control field | 02224nab a2200193 4500 |
| 008 - CÓDIGOS DE INFORMACIÓN DE LONGITUD FIJA - INFORMACIÓN GENERAL | |
| Campo de control de longitud fija | 260224s2016 xxu ing |
| 041 ## - IDIOMA | |
| Idioma | Inglés |
| 100 1# - RESPONSABLE PERSONAL | |
| Apellido, Nombre | Peel, Frank J. |
| 9 (RLIN) | 54257 |
| 245 00 - TITULO | |
| Título | Prospect risk, pot odds, and efficient drill or no-drill decision making |
| Subtítulo | What the exploration business can learn from high-stakes poker |
| 260 ## - PUBLICACION, DISTRIBUCION, ETC | |
| Fecha de publicación, distribución, etc. | abr. 2016 |
| 270 ## - FECHA DE CARGA | |
| Fecha de carga | 24/05/2016 ; 24/05/2016 |
| 300 ## - DESCRIPCION FISICA | |
| Otra extensión | 10 p. ; 525-535 |
| 520 ## - RESUMEN, ETC | |
| Resumen | Transcripción del resumen del autor: A decision to proceed with risk ventures, such as exploration wells, requires three basic estimates: the cost, if the venture fails; the reward, if the venture succeeds; and the chance of success (risk). These three estimates are combined to derive the expected value and expected rate of return, which are critical to decisions to proceed or not to proceed with the risk venture. However, although cost and reward are seen as relatively "hard" numbers, based on measurable quantities and established price forecasts, risk is commonly seen as a"Soft" number, an opinion based on incomplete knowledge. Decisions may be deferred, seeking more constraint on the risk estimate; this delay can be counterproductive. An alternative approach is used by professional poker players to make an equivalent decision. In that business, too, the chance of winning is harder to constrain than the cost and reward. Instead of seeking to fine-tune the risk, players compare a rough estimate of chance with "pot odds," an easily calculated number (the chance of winning needed to break even), and use this comparison to make the right decision efficiently. This approach can also be used in the exploration business. Pot odds of a prospect can be calculated using expected dry hole costs and the predicted value of a discovery. Comparison with the estimated chance of success may indicate whether we already have enough information to make the appropriate decision or whether further work is justified. This may improve business decision-making efficiency or provide a sense check on decisions already made. |
| 581 ## - ESTADO DE COLECCIÓN | |
| Estado de colección | 4 |
| 773 0# - CORRECCIÓN | |
| Título | AAPG Bulletin |
| Partes relacionadas | 100 |
| 942 ## - DESC. DE MATERIAL | |
| Tipo de item KOHA | Artículo de Revista |
| Fuente de clasificación | Dewey Decimal Classification |
| Biblioteca propietaria | Biblioteca actual | Fecha de adquisición | Inventario | Total de préstamos | Inventario | Fecha de carga | Tipo de item KOHA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biblioteca Alejandro Angel Bulgheroni | Biblioteca Alejandro Angel Bulgheroni | 06/03/2026 | 200061812 | 200061812 | 06/03/2026 | Artículo de Revista |
