What to expect when you are prospecting How new information changes our estimate of the chance of success of a prospect
Peel, Frank J. Brooks, John R.V.
What to expect when you are prospecting How new information changes our estimate of the chance of success of a prospect - dic. 2015 - 12 p. ; 2159-2171
Transcripción del resumen del autor: There is a common belief that we can expect to add value to a prospect or prospect portfolio by improving the prospect chance of success (Pg) as a consequence of acquiring information and doing work. Established laws of probability dictate that this is incorrect. We do expect new information to add value to the exploration cycle, but not by an expectation of improving the prospect risk. New information may result in an increase or a decrease of Pg, but the expected result (the average of all possible outcomes) is zero change. Moreover, for a typical exploration prospect (Pg).
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What to expect when you are prospecting How new information changes our estimate of the chance of success of a prospect - dic. 2015 - 12 p. ; 2159-2171
Transcripción del resumen del autor: There is a common belief that we can expect to add value to a prospect or prospect portfolio by improving the prospect chance of success (Pg) as a consequence of acquiring information and doing work. Established laws of probability dictate that this is incorrect. We do expect new information to add value to the exploration cycle, but not by an expectation of improving the prospect risk. New information may result in an increase or a decrease of Pg, but the expected result (the average of all possible outcomes) is zero change. Moreover, for a typical exploration prospect (Pg).
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