Geoecological Risk Management for Stable Development of Gas Industry
Bashkin, V. N. Priputina, I.V.
Geoecological Risk Management for Stable Development of Gas Industry - 6 p.
Trabajo presentado en el 24 WGC. Disponible en CD en la biblioteca. Solicite este trabajo por email a biblio@iapg.org.ar
Currently, the gas industry is focused on sustainable medium and long-term development, which reveals the particular relevance of environmental security issues especially in the course of developing prospective gas production areas of the Far North, the equatorial zone and the marine shelf. Management of environmental risks, caused by natural gas production, transportation and processing, requires the development of methods for their identification, analysis and adequate quantitative assessment. At the same time it is necessary to take into account the complex nature of interaction between gas industry facilities and environment, landscape and climate and the possibility of "non-economical" consequences of man-caused impact, the scope of which complicates their costs estimation. The most successful solution of these problems is provided by risk assessment aimed at establishment of qualitative cause-effect relations between the intensity of economic activities and "response effects" of the environment. For qualitative risk parametrisation, the statistical methods are used that allow to measure the amount of risk as a probability of unfavourable events under the given level of man-caused impacts, as well as estimate type and extent of the resulting damage (Gaudet et al., 2000; Evaluation.., 2004). Damage for ecosystems can be determined, for example, through the identification of areas (sites) with the possible extinction of certain biota species, disbalance of normal conditions, poorer plant products or natural water. Thus, environmental approaches are integrated with the mechanisms of economical substantiation of risk reduction and environmental and long-term production safety (Akimov, 2004; Bashkin, 2005; Bykov, 2007). However, identification of direct qualitative dependencies taking into account the heterogeneous nature of natural ecosystems and multi-factor influence of gas industry facilities is rather problematic due to insufficient study of the functioning pattern of natural-territorial complexes and to the lack of qualitative data on environmental consequences of risk factors (Risk.., 1997; Fairman et al., 1999). In this case the systematic approach is most effective because it enables to decompose the multi-factor interactions into the components that can be described by the relatively simple models (Samsonov et. all, 2007). At the same time the further analysis of the obtained results used for taking strategic decisions to reduce and minimise risks as well as to manage and to monitor them becomes easier.
Geoecological Risk Management for Stable Development of Gas Industry - 6 p.
Trabajo presentado en el 24 WGC. Disponible en CD en la biblioteca. Solicite este trabajo por email a biblio@iapg.org.ar
Currently, the gas industry is focused on sustainable medium and long-term development, which reveals the particular relevance of environmental security issues especially in the course of developing prospective gas production areas of the Far North, the equatorial zone and the marine shelf. Management of environmental risks, caused by natural gas production, transportation and processing, requires the development of methods for their identification, analysis and adequate quantitative assessment. At the same time it is necessary to take into account the complex nature of interaction between gas industry facilities and environment, landscape and climate and the possibility of "non-economical" consequences of man-caused impact, the scope of which complicates their costs estimation. The most successful solution of these problems is provided by risk assessment aimed at establishment of qualitative cause-effect relations between the intensity of economic activities and "response effects" of the environment. For qualitative risk parametrisation, the statistical methods are used that allow to measure the amount of risk as a probability of unfavourable events under the given level of man-caused impacts, as well as estimate type and extent of the resulting damage (Gaudet et al., 2000; Evaluation.., 2004). Damage for ecosystems can be determined, for example, through the identification of areas (sites) with the possible extinction of certain biota species, disbalance of normal conditions, poorer plant products or natural water. Thus, environmental approaches are integrated with the mechanisms of economical substantiation of risk reduction and environmental and long-term production safety (Akimov, 2004; Bashkin, 2005; Bykov, 2007). However, identification of direct qualitative dependencies taking into account the heterogeneous nature of natural ecosystems and multi-factor influence of gas industry facilities is rather problematic due to insufficient study of the functioning pattern of natural-territorial complexes and to the lack of qualitative data on environmental consequences of risk factors (Risk.., 1997; Fairman et al., 1999). In this case the systematic approach is most effective because it enables to decompose the multi-factor interactions into the components that can be described by the relatively simple models (Samsonov et. all, 2007). At the same time the further analysis of the obtained results used for taking strategic decisions to reduce and minimise risks as well as to manage and to monitor them becomes easier.
