World conventional hydrocarbon resources How much remains to be discovered, where is it?

Fowler, R.M. Burgess, C.J. Otto, S.C. Harris, J.P. Bastow, M.A.

World conventional hydrocarbon resources How much remains to be discovered, where is it? - 12 p. - Fowler, R.M. .

Abstract del autor, extraído del trabajo. Uncertainty surrounding Earth’s remaining conventional hydrocarbon supplies continues to cause argument and confusion. Although it has proved possible to achieve reasonable agreement over the approximate amount of remaining proved reserves, assessment of prospective (undiscovered) resources is more difficult and estimates vary widely. A sound understanding of global controls (topography, bathymetry, climate and eustasy) and basin controls (stratigraphy, burial history) on petroleum system components has acted as a basis for detailed analysis of each proven and potential play in every basin. Variations in quality and distribution of reservoir, source rock, migration distance, seal and preservation can be mapped and the juxtaposition of these elements produces an active play area, within which hydrocarbons may be preserved. Analysis of exploration history of structural domains within this active play enables estimation of the number of remaining prospects. Plotting pool size distributions for each play enables recognition of a fractal trend and its break points. Taken together these factors enable definition of a final pool size distribution. Of approximately 700 sedimentary basins worldwide, 350 have been analysed to the play level and 175 were taken through the entire methodology. Extrapolation of the play results to include all the world’s basins gives an estimated global prospective resource of 864 BBOE. This analysis indicates that only 25% of Earth’s total conventional hydrocarbon resource remains to be found. = WPC (16th.)

CD W938 1 0013960


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